When I was young the scientists scared us with global cooling!!! WWOOOOHHH!!!
Now its global warming…………………BOLLOCKS!!!
Forecasts of climate change are about to go seriously out of kilter. One of the world’s top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter “one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.
“I am not one of the sceptics,” insisted Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany. “However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it.”
Few climate scientists go as far as Latif, an author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But more and more agree that the short-term prognosis for climate change is much less certain than once thought.
Nature vs humans
This is bad timing. The UN’s World Meteorological Organization called the conference in order to draft a global plan for providing “climate services” to the world: that is, to deliver climate predictions useful to everyone from farmers worried about the next rainy season to doctors trying to predict malaria epidemics and builders of dams, roads and other infrastructure who need to assess the risk of floods and droughts 30 years hence.
But some of the climate scientists gathered in Geneva to discuss how this might be done admitted that, on such timescales, natural variability is at least as important as the long-term climate changes from global warming. “In many ways we know more about what will happen in the 2050s than next year,” said Vicky Pope from the UK Met Office.
Latif predicted that in the next few years a natural cooling trend would dominate over warming caused by humans. The cooling would be down to cyclical changes to ocean currents and temperatures in the North Atlantic, a feature known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
Breaking with climate-change orthodoxy, he said NAO cycles were probably responsible for some of the strong global warming seen in the past three decades. “But how much? The jury is still out,” he told the conference. The NAO is now moving into a colder phase.
Latif said NAO cycles also explained the recent recovery of the Sahel region of Africa from the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. James Murphy, head of climate prediction at the Met Office, agreed and linked the NAO to Indian monsoons, Atlantic hurricanes and sea ice in the Arctic. “The oceans are key to decadal natural variability,” he said.
Another favourite climate nostrum was upturned when Pope warned that the dramatic Arctic ice loss in recent summers was partly a product of natural cycles rather than global warming. Preliminary reports suggest there has been much less melting this year than in 2007 or 2008.
In candid mood, climate scientists avoided blaming nature for their faltering predictions, however. “Model biases are also still a serious problem. We have a long way to go to get them right. They are hurting our forecasts,” said Tim Stockdale of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK.
The world may badly want reliable forecasts of future climate. But such predictions are proving as elusive as the perfect weather forecast.
17:56 04 September 2009 by Fred Pearce, Geneva
IF these people would just look at the long term of planet Earth then you would realise that this planet has been a snowball and a tropical paradise and will be again …with or without carbon tax!!
Volcanic shutdown may have led to ‘snowball Earth’
- 09 May 2009 by David Shiga
- Magazine issue 2707
A 250-million-year shutdown of volcanic activity which is thought to have occurred early in Earth’s history may be what turned the planet into a glacier-covered snowball. It could also have helped give rise to our oxygen-rich atmosphere
…all without haumanity’s help.
LETS STICK TO THE IMPORTANT ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES!!
genetical modified plants and vegetables ,Pollution, hormone injections ,nuclear and chemical dumping and why our honey bees are dying?
BUT I DO NOT SEE A POLITION ATTACKING THESE ISSUES……there’s no lobby group ,with a fist full of dollars!!
CARBON TAX AND GLOBAL WARMING ,MY ARSE!!!!!